January 19, 2018
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The argument is DAP will never be able to win enough seats to form the federal government. So, Mahathir’s role in this whole thing is simple. His role is to help DAP form the next federal government. Hitler, too, who was not even a German citizen, won less than 50% but that did not stop him from coming into power. All Hitler needed was a coalition and to control that coalition like what Kit Siang is doing. So Kit Siang has taken a leaf out of Hitler’s playbook on how to use others to get into power and rule by proxy when you do not have enough support to do it on your own.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

“PAS will not be a factor in Selangor in GE14,” said DAP’s Ong Kian Ming. Ong explained that PAS managed to win 14 out of 15 state seats in Selangor in GE13 because of the high non-Malay support it received – an estimated 88% of Chinese and 68% of Indian support in these seats.

Ong is DAP’s strategist and his analysis (READ HERE) basically says that without Chinese (and Indian) support Malays who contest outside the Malay heartland do not stand a chance of winning. He then goes into the history and statistics, which are true and cannot be disputed. But the issue here is not to dispute Ong’s historical account and statistics but to analyse the implications of what he is saying.

What Ong is saying is the same thing that is being said by many other political analysts within and outside Malaysia. Most people share this view: in that general elections in Malaysia are about race and religion. This is the most important factor and cannot be ignored. Malaysians use race and religion to decide who they vote for. And DAP-Ong recognises this most important fact.

Ong says PAS is nothing without DAP and that would apply to Mahathir’s PPBM as well

Ong knows that if they depend on just Chinese and Indian votes DAP can most likely rule only in Penang — and they will never be able to form the federal government. Even retaining Selangor would be difficult and Perak, another ‘Chinese’ state, was won with Malay votes and once they lost those Malay votes DAP could not retain Perak.

What Ong did not mention, which should have been one very crucial element in his analysis, is can DAP convince the Chinese to vote for PPBM (plus PKR and PAN, of course)? Ong’s message was very clear. PAS won because DAP asked the Chinese to vote for them. That means if the Chinese did not vote for PAS then PAS has no hope. Another way of putting it is: if PAS wants to become a national party (and not just a regional party in the Malay heartland) they need Chinese and Indian support and only DAP can give them that.

Now, the ‘new PAS’ is PAN while the ‘new Umno’ is PPBM. Ong has admitted that the reason PAS won is because DAP asked the Chinese (and Indians) to vote for them. In other words, Malay support alone is not enough for PAS to win. PAS can only win if the Chinese and Indians vote for them as well — and that will only happen if DAP asks the Chinese and Indians to vote for PAS.

PAS made it on Chinese support and only DAP can ask the Chinese to vote Malay

That is what Ong plus many other political analysts within and outside Malaysia are saying. However, what he said is not the issue but the implications behind what he said is what matters. If that is the rule that applies to PAS then that will also be the rule that applies to PPBM and to PAN. The players can change but the rules of the game remain the same. And that would mean DAP will have to ask the Chinese and Indians to vote for PPBM and PAN or else these two parties are going to be dead in the water.

Ong’s analysis just proves what many had suspected all these years: which is DAP was using PAS to garner Malay support. However, when PAS refused to be DAP’s barua (by agreeing to kick Khalid Ibrahim out and replace him with Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail) they did not hesitate to close down Pakatan Rakyat and kick PAS out — which is the second time DAP did this after the first divorce in 2001.

So, PAS was not really an equal partner in Pakatan Rakyat (because partners would have a say in what happens). PAS was just DAP’s barua. And when PAS proved it no longer wishes to be DAP’s barua, DAP did not hesitate to get rid of PAS. And it was a simple matter of PAS did not agree to the sacking of Khalid based on lies and fabricated allegations of corruption (which have now been proven not true after all when Saifuddin Nasution issued a public apology).

In better days when Abdul Hadi Awang and PAS served DAP’s agenda

Lim Kit Siang realises that the loss of PAS means they will lose a lot of Malay support. So they are trying to use PPBM (and to a certain extent PAN) to get back the Malay support they have lost after they kicked PAS out of Pakatan. But they need a Malay icon to get back this Malay support. And this Malay icon is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

If you read properly what Ong said in his analysis, he is saying that PAS was merely DAP’s barua and the only reason PAS won their seats outside the Malay heartland is because of DAP. If not PAS would never win even one seat (or only one out of 15 seats in Selangor). And since PAS is no longer in Pakatan then the new Malay barua of DAP would be PPBM (since PAN is proving to be not what they expected).

So, what does that make Mahathir? If PAS was DAP’s barua and if PAS is no longer their barua and PPBM has replaced PAS would that not make PPBM the new DAP barua? Does Ong realise what his analysis revealed? It revealed that the Malays in Pakatan Harapan survive on Chinese and Indian support and that only DAP can tell the Chinese and Indians to vote for them.

Now Mahathir has to help DAP form the federal government

Maybe Ong was trying to be honest but in the same breath he admitted that Mahathir and his PPBM can only make it if the Chinese and Indians vote for them. But Ong knows that Chinese and Indian votes alone are not enough because there are only about 50 or so seats out of 222 where the Chinese are the kingmakers and no ‘Indian’ seats per se.

Hence if Pakatan wants to form the next federal government, as Ong said in his analysis, then they need to look beyond just 50 or so Chinese seats and work on another 70 non-Chinese seats as well. Of course, Sabah and Sarawak has 57 parliament seats but at best Pakatan can win ten or so of those 57. That means they need to win another 60 non-Chinese seats in West Malaysia. And the only way that can happen would be if they win the Malay-majority seats.

You do not need to be a maths genius to figure it out. If Pakatan wins 50 Chinese seats plus another 10 from East Malaysia (which would technically still be part of those ‘Chinese’ seats), that means they need to win another 70 non-Chinese seats in West Malaysia. And those are the seats PKR and Mahathir are supposed to deliver.

2008 and 2013 have proven that a Chinese Tsunami is not enough — Mahathir has to help DAP deliver a Malay Tsunami as well

PKR can win maybe 30 seats at best. So that means Mahathir has to help deliver the balance 40 seats for PPBM (and some for PAN — unless PAN can grab ten or so seats from PAS, which is not likely). Delivering 40 seats is a tall order even for Mahathir. Even if DAP asks the Chinese and Indians to vote for PPBM at best they can win five or six seats, not 40. The only way PPBM can win 40 seats would be if the Umno seats fell to PPBM.

In other words, while PAN focuses on the 20 or so PAS seats and try to win five or six of them, PPBM has to focus on the 100 or so Umno seats and try to win about 35-40 of them. That would make PPBM the second largest opposition party to DAP with PKR as number three and PAN struggling to stay relevant.

That is Kit Siang’s game plan. On their own DAP cannot form the next federal government. Even with PKR and PAN at best they can deny Barisan Nasional its two-thirds majority in Parliament. To form the next federal government they need Mahathir. And they need Mahathir because Mahathir is supposed to take away about 40 or so Umno seats and grant Pakatan Harapan a simple majority in Parliament.

The argument is DAP will never be able to win enough seats to form the federal government. So, Mahathir’s role in this whole thing is simple. His role is to help DAP form the next federal government. Hitler, too, who was not even a German citizen, won less than 50% but that did not stop him from coming into power. All Hitler needed was a coalition and to control that coalition like what Kit Siang is doing. So Kit Siang has taken a leaf out of Hitler’s playbook on how to use others to get into power and rule by proxy when you do not have enough support to do it on your own.

 



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